Weight loss drugs gained significant popularity in 2023, with the market expected to continue evolving in 2024. Despite the challenges of high prices, mixed insurance coverage, and side effects, demand for these drugs is projected to grow. Analysts estimate the weight loss drug market could be worth $100 billion by the end of the decade, with Goldman Sachs expecting 15 million U.S. adults to be on obesity medications by 2030.
Key players in the market, including Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, will face supply issues in the coming year, affecting drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic. Supply constraints are expected to ease, but the broader issue may take years to resolve. Both companies may seek approvals for expanded use of their drugs, with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound potentially reaching blockbuster status.
New data releases from Pfizer and Amgen, as well as potential buyouts or collaborations between larger and smaller companies, could impact the competitive landscape. Investors will closely monitor the supply challenges facing Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with some analysts predicting persistent constraints for years.
Eli Lilly’s Zepbound is expected to perform well in the market, with Morgan Stanley projecting $2.2 billion in sales in 2024. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, which made history by reducing the risk of heart problems, may see expanded approvals, potentially increasing its uptake.
The year 2024 could be crucial for Pfizer, with the release of data on its once-a-day weight loss pill, danuglipron. The company hopes to capture a significant share of the weight loss drug market, aiming for $10 billion in sales. Amgen is set to publish early-stage trial data on an oral weight loss medication and mid-stage trial data on an injectable drug.
Acquisitions and partnerships will play a role in shaping the market, with companies like Roche, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, and Eli Lilly making strategic moves. Small to mid-cap weight loss drugmakers may consider partnerships or acquisitions to compete with larger players.
In conclusion, 2024 is expected to bring further developments in the weight loss drug market, with supply challenges, new drug data releases, and potential strategic moves shaping the industry’s trajectory.
