After an impressive performance in 2022, the healthcare sector has faced challenges in 2023, dampening investor enthusiasm. Factors such as a focus on artificial intelligence, a slowdown in COVID-19 product sales, and increased demand for routine medical care have led to concerns. However, the healthcare sector remains attractive to investors due to several reasons.
Low valuations in the healthcare sector present an appealing starting point for a potential rebound. The sector, on average, trades roughly in line with its long-term average and below the S&P 500 index. The biotechnology subsector, characterized by high growth and risk, is trading at an even more significant discount, offering potential opportunities.
The recent slowdown in COVID-19 product sales is considered a post-pandemic adjustment, and the focus is shifting to sustainable growth in various therapeutic areas. Recent medical advances, such as GLP-1 agonist drugs for obesity and disease-modifying therapies for Alzheimer’s, are expected to drive long-term growth. Obesity affects over 750 million people worldwide, and the aging population is projected to double to 2 billion people aged 60 and over in the next three decades.
The healthcare sector is experiencing industry rationalization, with many existing blockbuster drugs facing patent expirations. This has led to increased mergers and acquisitions, benefiting small- and mid-cap biotechs and driving innovation. The patent cliff has also prompted efficiency improvements in the industry.
While the broad biotech benchmarks have shown lackluster performance in 2023, with negative returns, positive long-term trends are identified. The sector is undergoing a healthy consolidation process, leading to more efficient and sustainable returns for companies. The recent underperformance may also be attributed to the rally during the pandemic and the subsequent tightening of liquidity.
Despite short-term challenges, the healthcare sector provides a rare balance of growth and defense. Healthcare demand tends to remain resilient during economic contractions, and the sector offers growth opportunities driven by clinical data. Additionally, insurers resetting premiums during their annual rate-setting period can contribute to the sector’s defensive attributes.
In conclusion, the healthcare sector’s current low valuations, ongoing drug development momentum, industry rationalization, and its defensive characteristics make it an attractive investment option despite short-term headwinds.
